Testing Barry Greenstein’s claim, part 2

Dec 16th, 2009 | Posted by spadebidder

I ran the scans for a second site with more hands (119 million 9-player), and graphed all the equity boosts for both sites.   This graphs shows all the sample sizes, including a baseline for all matching hands (no folds required in front of the bet).   Site A shows the results described in the previous post.  Site B shows the additional tests.  




Notice that 4 folds looks to be about the average before the bet, as it has about the same result as no minimum.

So now we’ve looked at about 152 million hands of full ring NLHE.   The theory required an equity shift of at least 2.17% for AKs to become a favorite over 99-44  (actually closer to 2.3% after seeing that the pair distribution is weighted towards the top).   We didn’t find a shift that large, so my earlier conclusions didn’t change.   The only positive case is when 7 players fold around to the blinds and then we have a blind vs. blind all-in.  And even though the sample size in that case is so small that our offset from the mean is barely over 1 standard deviation (even combining both sites for n=361), I’m convinced that the AKs actually does become a favorite over medium pairs in that one special case. But only that one, which is not the same as the more general theory of becoming a favorite “after several folds”.

My testing of this theory and my conclusions should not be construed in any way as disrespect for Barry Greenstein, who knows far more math than I do and far more about poker than I do.   My purpose with this web site is to use a large dataset to try to quantify things no one ever has before, using empirical results.  In this case the results don’t quite support the theory.



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